How Russia (yes, Russia) plans to land cosmonauts on the Moon by 2030

Last Thursday, the leader of Russia's state space corporation, Dmitry Rogozin, gave a wide-ranging talk at Moscow University. The speech sought to describe activities happening now at Roscosmos and what may happen in the future, including a potential lunar landing.

Rogozin addressed his comments largely to students at the university, and he sought to paint a picture of a vibrant national space enterprise. This is presumably to boost the desirability of a career in space, as young people have been pursuing aerospace careers in smaller numbers. Reports of low salaries, low morale, and a lack of funding to even remove trash from Roscosmos facilities has not helped this trend.

The Russian plan

Via Robinson Mitchell, Ars obtained a copy of the slide deck Rogozin used for his speech and a translation of its contents (key slides are shown above). Of particular interest is the speech's focus on an independent lunar landing featuring cosmonauts by 2030. Taken at face value—which probably is not wise, given the big question of how Russia would fund such an enterprise—a Russian attempt to land humans on the Moon a decade from now would set up an extraordinary race among that country, NASA's Artemis Program, and China's lunar ambitions.

Under the plan outlined by Rogozin, the country will initially develop a new "Super Heavy" booster with a capacity of 103 metric tons to low Earth orbit and 27 metric tons to Lunar polar orbit. This is roughly equivalent to an upgraded version of NASA's Space Launch System, known as Block 1B.

The plan includes the development of the "Federation" spacecraft by 2022, with its first flight to the International Space Station by 2023. Deep-space flights of this spacecraft would follow in the mid-2020s, along with a return of lunar soil to Earth using the Luna-Grunt probe in 2027.

Finally, in 2029, crew flights to lunar orbit would begin, along with flight testing of a lunar lander and an inflatable lunar base module. The crew landing would take place in 2030, although Rogozin said he would like to move those dates earlier if possible.

In terms of strategy, Rogozin said he did not believe there is much potential for industrial utilization of the Moon, a theme that has been a key component of US and commercial plans to send humans back to the Moon. Rather, one strategic reason Rogozin cited was the role of a lunar station in defense against comets and asteroids. (It is not clear how that would work).

Doubting Rogozin

The speech comes amid questions about the future of Rogozin. Rumors have been swirling about whether he will soon be removed from the job. A respected Russian aerospace analyst, Vadim Lukashevich, shared some thoughts about the speech on his Facebook account. 

"Yesterday's speech by Dmitry Rogozin at Moscow State University, judging from several inside sources, overflowed the cup of patience," Lukashevich wrote. "Now everyone is talking about his impending resignation, including his subordinates (these last predominately in curses). Very difficult times are ahead for our space program."

These difficulties may include a troubling trend in Russian rocket failures, an uncertain future with its long-standing NASA partnership, funding issues, and more. For this reason, it is difficult to envision Russia launching an ambitious program to land on the Moon, but as ever, the country's progress (or lack of) will be worth tracking.

Listing image by Roscosmos